Trade opportunity?


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  • #1475
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi Nigel,

    Yes, but not all my capital… Will start to add more over the coming months though. I didnt really use a demo account for long because i would prefer to use a smaller account so i get the emotions sorted early.

    Cheers,

    Lewis

    #1502
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi troops,

    Got a couple to trade tomorrow, could be doing with some advice as well. Also, these probably wont go to plan since the market will have moved over the weekend.

    USDJPY, hands down my favourite market right now, however, is it possible to be having a reason to buy or sell on the same day? I know this would mean ignoring the directional bias which is actually making me second guess my decision.
    Reasons being that the market has started turning around the past couple of days so I could see a retracement down to 50% which also lies on the MOR which has proven time and time again to be widely used. On the other hand, I see a possibility to buy all the way up 124.956? I’m not sure if my reasons are valid and its kind of a gut feeling (not the best I know) buuuut, on the hour chart there has been tested resistance so hopefully it breaks that next time it tests it.

    GBPUSD (my chart is a little messy, so apologies) in my opinion is either going to break the trend line and if it does I hope to take profits in 3 different runs (obviously this will never happen, but in my ideal world haha). I marked them with the 3 blue lines below the black trend line. If not then I think it will go bullish all the way up to the touch the cyan line at the top, which would be great, because that would put the market into a good Rising wedge pattern (http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp) so i want to possibly buy up to that point then eventually sell if the market then turns around to then start this pattern.

    Sorry, that was a pretty poor explanation folks haha, would love any feedback.

    I’m not really sure how to approach these so Rich, your expertise would be great πŸ™‚

    Also, I plan on selling AUDUSD to 0.71629 because Fibonacci levels, I’m not wanting to go all the way to 200% because thats being a little greedy.

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    Lewis

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    #1512
    Rich FittonRich Fitton
    Keymaster

    Hi Lewis,

    I’d stick to the directional bias given by the MOR on your JPYUSD ideas. But… when you see an opportunity that runs counter to the bias (and you’ll have seen how your idea for the short worked exactly as you proposed – sold off onto support at 50%/MOR!!) one idea would be to trade at 1/2, 1/3 or even a 1/4 your normal size. It lets you scratch the itch without overexposing your account.

    Good logic on your GBPUSD analysis. The new MOR coming in on Monday might free things up for your push to the upside πŸ™‚

    #1518
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    I just stuck to directional bias… it worked, I had a great day trading on monday. I lost on my first attempt at shorting USDJPY, but when the next engulfing candle came i ran it down to 50% retracement.

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    #1548
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi team,

    Havnt posted my battleplans in a while. Hopefully this can spark a little conversation in the forum again πŸ™‚

    want to sell GBPUSD to 1.54423 and then maybe push to 1.53992 by using the exit strategy rich was talking about in the ‘when to exit?’ topic. I wanted to get involved in shorting GBPUSD at the start of that blue rectangle, cause that is where is broke a lot of resistance, however the release of interest news moved the market like crazy. Reasons for these figures are on the 1hr chart, you will see strong resistance at these levels.

    Sell AUDUSD to 0.72984 which is basically back to its MOR, so thats pretty simple.

    Want to buy USDJPY, it broke a significant resistance level the other day, so I reckon people were a little unsure how to treat it today. I reckon there will be some massive movement on it tomorrow. Still not sure what my targets are, so will look again tomorrow morning. I will maybe try and push around the 125.5ish area.

    Any feedback is welcome,

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    Lewis

    ****EDIT***

    Thought I would just add this little play in as well, which I like to use as another reason to get involved. GBPUSD is in the flag/pennant pattern again. Its coiling up and when this happens normally explodes in a direction. Added it to the images GBPUSD4.1

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    #1558
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi guys,

    Battleplan for tomorrow, I’m using trading view chart to show my reasons for this USDJPY trade, I tried to set it up on MT4 but it just looked a mess.

    Going long on USDJPY, I did this earlier by using a cypher pattern (give it a quick google and there is loads of information about them). I’ve already gained some pips on it so pretty pleased, however, since this is also made it go into a bullish directional bias, then I will be more than happy to add onto this if an engulfing candle happens above the DOR like normal.

    Want to buy AUDUSD to 0.74252.. its been bullish all day, so might see a retracement tomorrow, if not, then again, if it moves above DOR then that will be my target.

    I also think that EURUSD will stick to its directional bias, so will be looking to enter again if it trades above DOR to 1.12.

    EURGBP has hit my trendline, so there could be chance of a reversal around this area, so I will be watching that.

    Any feedback is welcome πŸ™‚

    I also finished the engulfing candle results earlier today, so will post them tomorrow.

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    Lewis

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    #1562
    Rich FittonRich Fitton
    Keymaster

    Hi Lewis,

    Looks good to me πŸ™‚ Things flying around at the moment on this China Yuan devaluation thing… the ‘one off’ adjustment has just been applied for the 3rd day on the run!

    #1566
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    I shorted AUDUSD after some more anaylysis this morning and EURGBP, … also took my trade in USDJPY, but somebody needs to poke that with a stick to make it move hahah

    πŸ™‚

    #1568
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi troops,

    Battleplan for tomorrow πŸ™‚

    Selling EURGBP to 0.70447, My reasons are that it has double topped (give it a google and you will see plenty of information about it) at the trendline which can often mean a reversal, it has then broke structure at around 0.71089 and to further add to this has then went into a wedge continuation pattern, the pattern has taking its place up at that 0.71089 level to use as support. (http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp). Reading about these I often hear that they are longer term patterns, but i see them working in smaller time frames all the time if they have other structure etc around them.

    Will do the rest of my planning tomorrow,

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    Lewis

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    #1622
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Hi team,

    Its been pretty quiet here recently. I have started doing my analysis in the morning because the market moving during the night is pain in the arse haha.

    Buuuut, looking to short USDJPY, it has had a retracement of 38.2% and found support at that level also, so will hopefully see it continue to drive down with as it has been doing since the end of august. I would normally put my targets, but that purely depends on what happens. However, if this was the morning then i would aim for 118.9ish.

    I’m also looking to short GBPUSD, its finding support on the 50% retracement and I would not say that this is in a buyers bias until it atleast breaks 1.53147, so I am more than comfortable to short this giving the opportunity.

    On the whole i would say i have slowed my trading right down. To start with I was very trigger happy, I was jumping in the market giving myself any reason. I still like to use patterns etc to help me have the scales tip towards my favour (as rich likes to say). However, I now rarely trade against MOR. I have been mostly studying, reading books, and i have found that patience really is key.

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    Lewis

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    #1625
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    WOW!, I wasnt even slightly close. Traded above the DOR from the off πŸ™‚ haha

    #1626
    Rich FittonRich Fitton
    Keymaster

    Hi Lewis,

    It was just one of those trades that didn’t spring your trap.

    “I have found that patience really is key” – yep, that really is what it’s all about. Do your prep and then wait for the trades that tick all the right boxes πŸ™‚

    #1630
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Just to add to this. I missed my move on USDJPY this morning cause i was making a bacon roll. hahaha gutted. that 9:30am (11:30) candle will haunt me.

    #1631
    Lewis NicolsonLewis Nicolson
    Participant

    Heres a question.

    Say the market moves and hits your target. Do you ever look for new targets? if an engulfing candle signals, will you look for further targets. I’m always a bit weary of this cause i always assume that the market is due a retracement.

    Cheers,

    Lewis

    #1636
    Rich FittonRich Fitton
    Keymaster

    Yep, you can always keep the next target level up/down plotted on your charts.

    One way you could handle it would be to trail your stop in REALLY tight as the market touches your original target price (you’d remove your original exit order, or take part of the position off here). This then lets you participate in a continued directional move, and if it doesn’t come off you’ve only given up a few pips back to the tight trailing stop.

    Sometimes it’ll work for you, sometimes against you, but if you only get one or two trades per quarter that run-on strongly it can be very worthwhile.

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